Democrats Eye Senate Majority
2 GOP Senators Rumored Ready to 'Jump the Aisle'

URL for this article:
http://www.nyblade.com/2007/2-2/
news/localnews/senjump.cfm

By Kerry Eleveld
Friday, February 02, 2007

Two Senate Republicans may soon become Senate Democrats if Nassau County Legislator Craig Johnson, the Democratic candidate for the 7th state Senate district seat, wins the special election on February 6.

"There's a real possibility that the Democrats will take back a majority in the state Senate this year," said Ethan Geto, a Democratic strategist and president of Geto and de Milly. "There are two Republican state Senators who have been rumored to be talking to the Democratic Senate leadership and are prepared to jump the aisle."

The likelihood of that scenario playing out increases significantly if Craig Johnson wins his bid for the Senate seat vacated when Republican Michael Balboni accepted a post as Gov. Spitzer's deputy secretary of public safety. Johnson's win would whittle down the Senate Republican majority to two seats, and the defection of two Republicans would put both parties at 31 seats each, leaving the tie breaking vote to Lt. Gov. David Paterson, a Democrat.

Lt. Gov. Paterson has hinted at the prospect of Senate Democrats taking the majority in previous interviews with the Blade. When asked after his inauguration if the Democrats might achieve a Senate majority in 2008, Lt. Gov. Paterson said, "Give me a couple more months and it might happen in 2007."

Senate Minority Leader Malcolm Smith is working hard to fulfill Paterson's prophecy. Within the last couple weeks, Geto said Sen. Smith had "reiterated his strong support for passing a gay marriage bill and is looking toward cobbling together a Democratic majority in the state Senate so they can move the bill."

Geto declined to name names, but one need only survey media from around the state to drum up some theories.

Sen. John Bonacic of New Paltz has been noted repeatedly on The New York Observer Politicker blog for having led a "lonely revolt" in Albany when he was the sole senator to call for Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno's resignation due to an FBI probe into his business dealings. One week later, the Times Herald-Record reported that Gov. Spitzer had held an hour-long meeting with Sen. Bonacic.

Meanwhile, the Albany Times Union blog called Sen. Joseph Robach, who became a Republican when he jumped the aisle back in 2002, a "prime candidate" for switching parties again.

A Democratic Senate majority would prompt a dramatic shift in focus to the Assembly where all eyes would be on Speaker Sheldon Silver. Democrats hold a 107-43 seat advantage in the Assembly. Still, more than a few activists have noted Silver's reluctance to bring a marriage bill up for a vote if it doesn't have a chance in the Senate.

"If we capture the majority in the Senate, it makes it easier for a bill to be brought to the floor of the Assembly and voted on because there's no longer the prospect of it being a one-house bill," said Geto.

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